With the emergence of a “new economic norm” and the development of “economic integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei”, electricity demand situation in Beijing will change significantly in the future. To guide the planning and construction of power grid in Beijing, it is indispensable to predict electricity demand during the 13th Five-year. Since the factors and affecting mechanisms for electricity demand are different in different sectors, the total electricity consumption in this paper is divided into five parts: the first industry, industry, construction industry, the tertiary industry and resident sectors. The exponential smoothing method and co-integration theory are introduced to establish the forecasting model of electricity demand in different sectors. Therefore, based on the forecasting model and scenario analysis, the analysis results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 4.9%-6.0% during 13th Five-Year-Plan period, and the consumption would reach more than 0.1397×1012 kWh in 2020.
| Published in |
International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering (Volume 4, Issue 4-1)
This article belongs to the Special Issue Current Energy Issues in China |
| DOI | 10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13 |
| Page(s) | 12-16 |
| Creative Commons |
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Copyright |
Copyright © The Author(s), 2015. Published by Science Publishing Group |
Electricity demand, forecasting, subsectors, Exponential smoothing method, co-integration theory
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APA Style
Na-na Li, Hui-ru Zhao, Ming-rui Zhao. (2015). Electricity Demand Prediction of Beijing during the 13th Five-year. International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 4(4-1), 12-16. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13
ACS Style
Na-na Li; Hui-ru Zhao; Ming-rui Zhao. Electricity Demand Prediction of Beijing during the 13th Five-year. Int. J. Energy Power Eng. 2015, 4(4-1), 12-16. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13
AMA Style
Na-na Li, Hui-ru Zhao, Ming-rui Zhao. Electricity Demand Prediction of Beijing during the 13th Five-year. Int J Energy Power Eng. 2015;4(4-1):12-16. doi: 10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13
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Download@article{10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13,
author = {Na-na Li and Hui-ru Zhao and Ming-rui Zhao},
title = {Electricity Demand Prediction of Beijing during the 13th Five-year},
journal = {International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering},
volume = {4},
number = {4-1},
pages = {12-16},
doi = {10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13},
url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13},
eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13},
abstract = {With the emergence of a “new economic norm” and the development of “economic integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei”, electricity demand situation in Beijing will change significantly in the future. To guide the planning and construction of power grid in Beijing, it is indispensable to predict electricity demand during the 13th Five-year. Since the factors and affecting mechanisms for electricity demand are different in different sectors, the total electricity consumption in this paper is divided into five parts: the first industry, industry, construction industry, the tertiary industry and resident sectors. The exponential smoothing method and co-integration theory are introduced to establish the forecasting model of electricity demand in different sectors. Therefore, based on the forecasting model and scenario analysis, the analysis results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 4.9%-6.0% during 13th Five-Year-Plan period, and the consumption would reach more than 0.1397×1012 kWh in 2020.},
year = {2015}
}
TY - JOUR T1 - Electricity Demand Prediction of Beijing during the 13th Five-year AU - Na-na Li AU - Hui-ru Zhao AU - Ming-rui Zhao Y1 - 2015/08/03 PY - 2015 N1 - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13 DO - 10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13 T2 - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering JF - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering JO - International Journal of Energy and Power Engineering SP - 12 EP - 16 PB - Science Publishing Group SN - 2326-960X UR - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijepe.s.2015040401.13 AB - With the emergence of a “new economic norm” and the development of “economic integration in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei”, electricity demand situation in Beijing will change significantly in the future. To guide the planning and construction of power grid in Beijing, it is indispensable to predict electricity demand during the 13th Five-year. Since the factors and affecting mechanisms for electricity demand are different in different sectors, the total electricity consumption in this paper is divided into five parts: the first industry, industry, construction industry, the tertiary industry and resident sectors. The exponential smoothing method and co-integration theory are introduced to establish the forecasting model of electricity demand in different sectors. Therefore, based on the forecasting model and scenario analysis, the analysis results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 4.9%-6.0% during 13th Five-Year-Plan period, and the consumption would reach more than 0.1397×1012 kWh in 2020. VL - 4 IS - 4-1 ER -
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